The next big thing will start out looking like a toy

The next big thing in the internet economy often starts out looking like a toy, as it may initially undershoot user needs but has the potential to evolve rapidly due to external forces and complementary network effects. These disruptive technologies are not always recognized by incumbents, as they fail to anticipate how quickly they can improve. Social software is an interesting example where users’ actions drive its improvement. While not every product that looks like a toy will become the next big thing, startups with disruptive technologies are more likely to be on top lists in the future than those with sustaining technologies.